Daily Posts

Updating OPEC+’s Production Function

12.18.2024

We continue to examine the impacts of the numerous structural breaks that have occurred in…

Brent Weakens On USD Surge

12.17.2024

The sudden resignation of Canada's Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland yesterday throws the future of Prime…

Correction To RCi Oil-Demand Estimates

12.16.2024

We are correcting an error in our initial estimate of global oil demand and growth…

OPEC+ Production And Prompt Brent

12.13.2024

Very often modelers and forecasters -- ourselves included -- use supply and demand as explanatory…

Oil Demand Growth Revives In 2025

12.12.2024

At +1.9mm b/d next year, our initial estimate for global oil demand growth next year…

Fading OPEC’s Bearish Growth Assumption

12.11.2024

OPEC scaled back its estimate for 2025 global oil-demand growth yet again today, and now…

Surge of LNG Exports Keeps LNG Carriers Attractive

12.10.2024

A warm start to the natural-gas winter withdrawal season -- coupled with continued increases in…

Real USD FX Rates, Inflation Models Capture Growing Uncertainty

12.09.2024

In our bi-weekly long-read published at the end of last week, we noted the direct…

OPEC+ Delivers More Backwardation

12.05.2024

OPEC+'s decision to very slowly -- one might say "sparingly" -- restore almost 6mm b/d…

Economic Policy Uncertainty Drives Gold

12.04.2024

A common theme in more than a few of the 2025 outlooks is a renewed…

Permian Oil Output Remains Strong

12.03.2024

The Permian Basin -- the most prolific shale-oil basin in the US -- continues to…

Exchange Copper Stocks Move Higher

12.02.2024

Global exchange copper stocks as of end-October were estimated at 512,206 MT up 301,356 MT,…

American Thanksgiving

11.28.2024

We will not be publishing until Monday, in observance of American Thanksgiving. We wish you…

Is BTC Really “Digital Gold”

11.27.2024

The campaign by the cryptocurrency industry for President-elect Trump to establish a US bitcoin reserve…

OPEC+ Signals Production-Cut Extension

11.26.2024

OPEC+ officals are signaling their voluntary production cuts could be extended into 2025 when the…

Lower Policy Rates Favor Gold

11.25.2024

Oil and FX markets both are pointing to lower inflation in 2025, based on our…

USD Signaling Lower Inflation, As Well

11.22.2024

There is a strong empirical relationship between nominal USD rates and inflation expectations, as measured…

Oil Markets Pointing to Lower Inflation in 2025

11.21.2024

The debate over the impact of economic policies proffered by president-elect Trump is in full…

Time To Get Long LNG Carriers

11.20.2024

European natural gas markets again are tightening. This is largely down to colder weather; falling…

OECD Oil Inventories Balanced For Now …

11.19.2024

Year-on-year changes in the end-of-month levels of OECD crude oil and refined product inventories have…

CCP Cancels Aluminum Export-Tax Rebates

11.18.2024

The CCP's decision to end the 13% export-tax rebates for aluminum, copper, and used cooking…

Gas Covers Off On Electricity Demand Growth

11.13.2024

Increasing electricity demand, driven by AI data-center and manufacturing consumption, is largely being met by…

Higher US LNG Exports To Europe Expected

11.12.2024

The 9.2% spike in prompt Henry Hub natgas prices yesterday perfectly illustrates the climate-change effects…

KSA, Iran Reducing Oil Risk Premium

11.11.2024

The risk premium in global oil prices could take a leg lower, if the weekend…

China’s PBOC Policy … More Meh …?

11.08.2024

It would be a mistake to dismiss the PBOC's $1.4 trillion bail-out of heavily indebted…

German Govt Collapses: Buy Gold

11.07.2024

Realpolitik entered the zeitgeist of German politics furiously today. German opposition leader Friedrich Merz demanded…

USD Spikes On Trump Win

11.06.2024

Donald Trump's decisive 5 November victory in the US presidential election kicked the so-called Trump…

Data-Dependent OPEC+

11.05.2024

OPEC+ opted to wait for more data before scheduling the return of 2.2mm b/d by…

Inflation’s Quiescent, Not Tamed

11.04.2024

The 2.65% yoy growth reported for September in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge -- i.e.,…

Investors Pile Into Gold ETFs

10.31.2024

Physically backed gold ETFs are late to the party, which, since 3Q23, has seen gold's…

US M2 Pushing Gold Higher

10.30.2024

Gold's dazzling run continues: On 30 Oct 24, after clearing $2,785/oz the yellow metal appeared…

Oil Smacked, Gold’s Still Bid

10.29.2024

We're writing on gold later this week when we publish our in-depth biweekly report. For…

RCi Daily Posts To Begin Monday

10.25.2024

G'day, All. RCi launches Daily Posts Monday! Daily Posts will be single-topic commentaries related to…