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Reports & Insights

… a lot of these variables do look like random walks. In a random walk, knowing where you are … that’s all there is to know. In fact for a lot of these macro variables, forecasting, if you know where you are you have a big advantage …
Robert Litterman, Sussman Award Lecture: Part 2, February 2013

Reports
2025 Outlook Part 2: Inflation, Oil And The Fed
2025 Outlook Part 2: Inflation, Oil And The Fed

2025 Outlook Part 2: Inflation, Oil And The Fed

12.20.2024
We expect oil-demand growth to pick up next year, but this will not lead to higher inflation, based on our analysis.
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Outlook Part I: Gold, Base Metals Regime Shift
Outlook Part I: Gold, Base Metals Regime Shift

Outlook Part I: Gold, Base Metals Regime Shift

12.06.2024
Democracies and autocracies are in the throes of upheaval, which will, almost surely, re-order metals markets as relations become more confrontational. China formally banned the export of dual-use critical minerals…
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Oil Markets In The Eye Of The Storm
Oil Markets In The Eye Of The Storm

Oil Markets In The Eye Of The Storm

11.15.2024
Geo-economic and -political uncertainty will drive oil-price volatility higher, as the Trump administration prepares to take office in January. Oil prices remain quiescent, despite shifting US policy-rate expectations more aligned…
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What’s Up With Gold?
What’s Up With Gold?

What’s Up With Gold?

11.01.2024
Macro Backdrop: Crammed into next week are the US general election on 5 November – a coin-toss affecting the global economy; the delayed meeting of the Standing Committee of China’s…
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China’s Liquidity Trap Dampens Oil Demand
China’s Liquidity Trap Dampens Oil Demand

China’s Liquidity Trap Dampens Oil Demand

10.18.2024
Macro Backdrop The CCP continues to disappoint markets with the wrong policy response to China’s persistent liquidity trap – i.e., monetary-policy stimulus – which is better addressed with fiscal policy.…
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It’s All About Risk Management
It’s All About Risk Management

It’s All About Risk Management

10.04.2024
Welcome, and thank you for your interest in Ryan Commodity Insights (RCi). This is the inaugural edition of our research report covering Energy Security and the global Energy Transition. We…
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Daily Posts
Updating OPEC+’s Production Function
Updating OPEC+’s Production Function

Updating OPEC+’s Production Function

12.18.2024
We continue to examine the impacts of the numerous structural breaks that have occurred in…
Brent Weakens On USD Surge
Brent Weakens On USD Surge

Brent Weakens On USD Surge

12.17.2024
The sudden resignation of Canada's Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland yesterday throws the future of Prime…
Correction To RCi Oil-Demand Estimates
Correction To RCi Oil-Demand Estimates

Correction To RCi Oil-Demand Estimates

12.16.2024
We are correcting an error in our initial estimate of global oil demand and growth…
OPEC+ Production And Prompt Brent
OPEC+ Production And Prompt Brent

OPEC+ Production And Prompt Brent

12.13.2024
Very often modelers and forecasters -- ourselves included -- use supply and demand as explanatory…
Oil Demand Growth Revives In 2025
Oil Demand Growth Revives In 2025

Oil Demand Growth Revives In 2025

12.12.2024
At +1.9mm b/d next year, our initial estimate for global oil demand growth next year…